War coming to an end finally?

Discussion in 'High Definition' started by KR~!, Nov 29, 2007.

  1. X-human

    X-human I ate my keys

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    Apparently they created a work around by utilizing the already cracked AACS, so they've exploited a bug in BD+ that'll probably be fixed soon. They still claim to have cracked BD+ itself but haven't released that yet. We'll have to see how BD+ adapts as that's what it's specifically designed to do.

    Oh, and the best part of that thread is this:
    That's right, if hackers didn't crack software to pirate no one would buy retail discs and companies would lose money... Wait a minute... :rolleyes:
     
  2. dwatts

    dwatts Active Member

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    :D It shows how far things have gone when people support one format over the other based on whether it can be pirated, doesn't it? If piracy is of the highest concern they'll move to digital download ASAP and whack on some obscene encryption restrictions that could change every few microseconds if necessary.
     
  3. X-human

    X-human I ate my keys

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  4. KR~!

    KR~! The Apocalyptic Kid

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  5. othervoice1

    othervoice1 Well-Known Member

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    Unbelievable......Funny until it happens to me!:D
     
  6. othervoice1

    othervoice1 Well-Known Member

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  7. Reverenddave

    Reverenddave New Member

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    I don't get this Sony CEO. The Blu PR guys have been sending out weekly press releases all year long, saying that Blu-Ray has already won the war. Apparently this guy isn't getting the memos.

     
  8. 17thJuggalo

    17thJuggalo Active Member

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    Every time I glance the front page, I see this topic and think "Is someone posting about the war in Iraq being over?" Then I look and its about Hi-Def discs and I kick myself. :mad:
     
  9. X-human

    X-human I ate my keys

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    Here's the new numbers from Nielsen. (Yes I stole this from someone else on another forum)

    Titles Released Dec. 4, 2007

    Blu-ray:
    20 Million Miles to Earth (Sony)
    Cast Away (Fox)
    Elton 60 - Live at Madison Square Garden (Universal Music)
    Masters of Horror: Season One - Vol. Four (Starz)
    Mr. & Mrs. Smith (Fox)
    Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena Vista)
    Queen Rock Montreal & Live Aid (Eagle Rock)
    Superbad (Sony)

    HD-DVD:
    Arctic Tale (Paramount)
    Battlestar Galactica: Season One (Universal)
    Queen Rock Montreal & Live Aid (Eagle Rock)

    Percentages
    BD / HD
    76 / 24 Week
    65 / 35 Year
    62 / 38 Since Inception

    Top 10 Titles
    1. POTC AWE BD 100.00
    2. Superbad BD 37.46
    3. Planet Earth HD 12.38
    4. Spider-Man 3 BD 10.51
    5. Transformers HD 7.49
    6. Live Free or Die Hard BD 7.40
    7. PE BD 6.77
    8. POTC DMC BD 6.70
    9. Ratatouille BD 6.69
    10. 300 BD 5.36

    Number of Titles in Top 10
    BD:8
    HD:2

    I bought 20 Million Miles to Earth and Masters of Horror: Season One - Vol. Four, neither made it into Top 10. :( No matter who wins fans like me will always be the minority.

    Anyways BD keeps getting closer and closer to 80% sales. In fact I think this is the closest it's ever been. I have to wonder; at what point do retailers call it quits? 80%? 90%? How long does it need to be sustained?

    It's also interesting that Planet Earth remains above and beyond HD-DVD's best seller. Logically, this isn't exactly a mainstream title (due to content and price) so I think it shows HD discs in general remains in the niche of home theater enthusiasts. It also seems to show, I think, a lack of interest from HD-DVD fans in their format's other titles. BD stand by's are both Pirates, Casino Royal, and 300 (which I think people go BD on because of the lower price). While HD-DVD's got The Matrix series, Batman Begins, 300 and plenty of other long standing titles to fall back on yet nobody seems to.

    Surprising to me at least is Spider-man 3's bounce back to remain in the top 5 outselling Transformers. Considering it's competing with free handouts in PS3's and sales of Spider-man boxsets I really can't figure out its resurgence after the less than stellar opening week sales. Also Shrek 3's low sales is rather surprising as well, probably stemming from the incorrect but widely held view that animation doesn't benefit from HD.
     
  10. Reverenddave

    Reverenddave New Member

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    It's not surprising that BR got 76% of the market that week. They put up POTC3 and Superbad against HD's Arctic Tale. HD has really dropped the ball in terms of software this quarter. Only 3 big HD exclusives in a couple months (Transformers, Shrek 3 & Bourne Ultimatum). BR has one huge title after another. Add in BR's weekly B1G1 sales, and I'm really surprised their market share isn't higher.

    But on the weeks without any big releases (like the week before), the software numbers are much closer (58%/42%). And given how poorly both formats are selling, you're probably only talking a few thousand discs.

    The one thing keeping HD alive right now is their low hardware prices. But if they want to survive past the holiday season, they'll need to improve the software offerings. I hope HD gives the studios a swift kick in the ass. They need better titles and lower disc prices.
     
  11. othervoice1

    othervoice1 Well-Known Member

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    That Sony CEO is cracking me up- wonder how long he will still have his job....lol
     
  12. X-human

    X-human I ate my keys

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    Math is not a friend to this statement.

    None of the top 10 are in B1G1 sales. Outside the top ten you're already talking titles having well less then 10,000 units sold. If PotC:AWE sales numbers are 160,000 as reported, then 300 BR which is number ten only sold bout 8,500 units. This reflects the ratios for the week when sales numbers from Spider-man 3's were known.

    Anything sold off during the B1G1 sales are in reality a drop in the bucket. The math does not add up for B1G1 sales being a difference maker beyond, frankly, keeping Blu-ray owners happy and HD-DVD owners unhappy.

    You look just at the ratio's of unit sold in the top 10 you've already got the numbers matching total sale ratios. Anything off the top ten chart is not moving in volumes that can make a difference. The curve is that steep, slot #10 already is 95% less than slot #1.

    Even at best HD-DVD's third highest selling title would be less than 95% of Blu-ray's best. Overall numbers are equally as abysmal I'm afraid. Looking at that trend back catalog titles are probably still selling in the hundreds even on opening week. I wouldn't be surprised if 20 Million Miles to Earth was in the low hundreds, very low hundreds most probably since it's ALREADY in B1G1 sales.

    Life of Brian may even of had less than 100 pre-orders, so Sony included that in B1G1 sales too. This would also account for the delay, they decide not to waste the disc production time of the holiday season if pre-order were so low.

    If BR is doing the best and their catalog titles are in these dire straights we're talking bleaker sums on HD-DVD.
     
  13. Reverenddave

    Reverenddave New Member

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    That's the point I was trying to make. I'm surprised these weekly B1G1 sales aren't having a bigger impact on Blu-Ray's market share. With these B1G1 sales you can pick up BR titles for $10 or less. The 4-disc boxes were recently under $7 a movie.

    If the High-Def market dominance is only decided by a handful of titles. Then the market share is at the whim of whatever high profile titles are released in a given week.

    BR is dominating the market right now, not for their B1G1 sale prices or excellent catalog titles, but because of their recent string of big name exclusives (which HD doesn't have). And that's surprising, because I think their frequent software sales and nice catalog releases are BR's best selling points.

    It'll be interesting to see what happens after Christmas. BR won't have any more big Summer blockbusters to plump up their market share. Of course, HD still has a lousy post-holiday line-up. But I don't think we'll be seeing the same 3-1 blowout each week.
     
  14. JW77

    JW77 Support Halliburton

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    Do the sales figures include sales to rental outlets? Blockbuster is BR exclusive, I believe. I could also see BR being more popular with rentals, where you would have people renting the discs to watch on their PS3s.

    I'm still of the mind that, even though BR is selling more titles than HD-DVD, that since most of the units out there are PS3s that the support is still "soft" and the bottom can fall out when gamers get bored with watching movies on their PS3s and more games eventually start coming out.

    And we also have to remember that both formats are still competing with DVD. DVD still outsell HD something like 50:1. It's going to be a long time before BR and/or HD-DVD start making inroads there. Realistically, how many people out there understand the difference between interlaced and progressive? 480, 720, and 1080? What HDMI means? Christ, people are still buying fullscreen DVDs.
     
  15. X-human

    X-human I ate my keys

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    I'm also more worried about HD discs flat lining in general than the format war for all the points mentioned. I feel the format war is holding the market back. I know personally I'll be buying less now that my 10% off Amazon deal is coming to and end.

    Here are some interesting Planet Earth numbers I'll steal again:

    As of Aug. 5th, 2007
    PE HD DVD 52,900
    PE Blu-ray 44,700

    As of Oct. 21, 2007
    PE HD DVD 70,900
    PE Blu-ray 68,400

    While PE has still sold more overall on HD-DVD, Blu-ray has made significant gains and sold better during this period (the only period we have numbers for). It makes sense now why Warner worked with Samsung to give away copies of the first PE disc with their new player. Warner's probably looking to sell about as many Blu-ray copies as the market ratio indicates Blu-ray should sell more of. Very clever, they're planting seeds no doubt about that.

    I know I use to say Warner's going to remain neutral, but with them working more with BD on both B1G1 and player incentives it seems they're more actively trying to test the market than I originally anticipated. The recent SNAFU with Harry Potter is also showing the downside of remaining neutral, creating extra expenses, bad public image and just in general headaches all around. Along with Warner's recent online store troubles it's especially interesting that many (not all) of the problem discs are coming straight from their online store, placing more strain specifically on that department.

    As I've also said I have a feeling Universal may go neutral, they've indicated they feel pressure to do so and have said they're only remaining HD-DVD because at the time they were the only HD-DVD only studio. Now they're not, back catalog titles are doing poorly (the vast majority of their output), and Toshiba spited them by paying Paramount/Dreamworks LOTS of money. They probably had a contract which only lasted till the end of this Holiday season (like Paramount's only lasts till after next year's Holiday). Universals' strongest releases are still beat out by BD's weakest. Universals weak release schedule, and almost nonexistent 2008 schedule, is also very telling. Universal is showing a total lack of effort with HD-DVD.

    While HD-DVD may not be doing "bad" enough I'd say they're not doing "good" enough to justify their existence. BD-Live is being utilized in January by Lionsgate and Sony, Profile 1.1 is in place, BD-Java has been utilized since May especially by Disney. Both Disney and Fox have had best week release sellers this season, they've gotta be happy. 300's on BD is still Warner's best seller (despite less extras), PE on BD is now outshining its once mighty HD-DVD brother, Warner's partner in crime New Line likes region coding, and Harry Potter's becoming a neutrality headache instead of easy money.

    While Toshiba has worked wonders I still think Blu-ray looks like they're in the best position after this season.
     
  16. othervoice1

    othervoice1 Well-Known Member

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    I agree that HD-DVD has made one hell of a comeback and can win this thing- but that Blu-ray still has the edge and the looming decision by Warner is very big. Just my personal feeling is I give the edge to blu-ray in the war 60-40 right now- maybe even 55-45. What Warner and maybe Universal decide to do can even this up or give HD-DVD an edge or almost bury HD-DVD
     
  17. zombi3

    zombi3 Pure Evil

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    Based on what I've been reading, we might know the winner at CES in January. It seems that one of the following will happen:

    A) Warner goes Blu; Universal goes neutral.

    B) Warner goes Red; Fox and/or Disney goes neutral.

    It's still all speculation at this point based on rumors, so I'm afraid we'll just have to wait and see what happens. It does seem clear, however, that WB will likely decide the outcome.
     
  18. Damed

    Damed Guest

    WB holds all the cards.

    From what I've seen and read, I'd be extremely surprised if they went blu.
     
  19. KR~!

    KR~! The Apocalyptic Kid

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    besides the fact that they made the statement at a Blu-Ray con?!?
     
  20. Damed

    Damed Guest

    Really, now.

    http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multim...Exclusive_Blu_Ray_Support_Strategy_Shift.html

    http://www.neowin.net/news/main/07/12/13/warner-denies-plans-to-go-blu-ray-exclusive

    http://www.engadget.com/2007/12/13/warner-vp-denies-blu-ray-exclusive-which-is-nice/



     

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